Shiv Sena’s and the Maharashtra MVA government’s woes are exacerbated by the fact that both his party and the coalition’s clever players seemed naive when Eknath Shinde’s revolt became clear. It’s worth noting that Maharashtra’s home minister is an NCP member; given the way police and politics interact, one could wonder whether Sena was informed by NCP that some 20 or so MLAs were about to defect to BJP-ruled Gujarat.
Sharad Pawar loves to remain on top of the game no matter what happens in Maharashtra politics, and he regularly does so. Pawar’s involvement might be intriguing if the drama over the future of MVA begins to unfold and if the BJP makes a strong drive for government formation.
The fact that Uddhav Thackeray had a strong track record as an administrator and that the MVA remained relatively stable in the face of a BJP that outmanoeuvred opposition parties in other states likely concealed his realpolitik flaws. To see cross-voting in MLC polls so soon after the Rajya Sabha elections was evidence of weak party administration.
As a result of the MLC catastrophe, it seems that Uddhav and his confidants’ political antennae are much worse than they were before this. Uddhav and MVA have to be significantly more watchful while facing the unrelenting and vicious BJP, which regards Maharashtra as a treasure denied to it. When it comes to Sanjay Raut’s and Uddhav Raut’s son Aaditya Shinde’s complaints, Sena should have handled them because of their power in Thane and the neighbouring areas, including Mumbai.
Additionally, he’s a major actor in the BMC and Thane municipal elections. With Raut and other backroom operatives, CMs need to make sure they don’t alienate key vote-getters like Shinde.
Sena’s ideal outcome would be to entice Shinde back into the fold. For MVA’s future and perhaps the coalition’s mere survival, that as-of-now-unlikely conclusion is gloomy. If MVA survives, it will be a less secure institution for the BJP, which has nothing to lose and Maharashtra to gain.
When it comes to the most intriguing medium-term subject, the BJP and Sena’s political remarriage is a matter of great curiosity. Sena is in risk of becoming the BJP’s B-team for the rest of time. For Uddhav, there are no simple solutions.