Between 1946 and 2005, only 39 of 288 conflicts, or 13.5%, resulted in a peace agreement, per a hunt initiative at the University of Uppsala in Sweden. The others led to victory for one side or an end to fighting without a peace agreement or a victory.
But even when contenders fail to succeed in a peace agreement, talks can reduce civilian casualties through temporary cease-fires or the establishment of humanitarian corridors to deliver supplies or evacuate civilians.
There is also evidence that even failed peace agreements reduce the intensity of the future conflict. Peace talks can create a foundation for an eventual agreement to finish the conflict. they will also reduce harm to communities.
If we see the trends, the cease-fire negotiations are often undertaken during a spike in violence. This violence can give impetus to scale back fighting in the future.
If contenders comply with a cease-fire and keep on with that agreement, casualties on either side are avoided. they’ll also create an initial foundation of trust which will ease the thanks to harder negotiations.
The Nuba Mountains ceasefire agreement in Sudan, as an example, is credited with helping to make trust that allowed broader, and more meaningful, north-south peace talks to require a place, starting in 2002.
Crucially, peace talks during the war aren’t something fighters do as another to fighting. it’s a technique, used alongside fighting, to attain one’s goals.
The biggest challenge to peace talks is conflict-related violence, and also the anger and mistrust it creates between different fighters. As far as the Negotiators are concerned, they must sit across from those they believe have killed their sons and daughters.
More often than not, however, one side believes it’s winning and doesn’t have an incentive to barter. In Afghanistan, for example, the Taliban pulled out of peace talks in 2021 as they were making significant military gains and therefore we had announced it’d withdraw troops.
Both sides realize they’re being harmed by the established order but also know that they can’t defeat the opposite side militarily. Negotiations ultimately become then a logical way forward.
Negotiators must not only reach an agreement but also sell that agreement to a community that’s angry, traumatized and grieving.
This is only 1 reason that it’s important to incorporate all types of individuals, including women, community organizers and different ethnic leaders, in peace talks. Their inclusion means public acceptance of the peace deal grows because the negotiations proceed.
Peace negotiators must build some quiet working relationships just to prepare for peace talks. These relationships, though, don’t guarantee those asleep talks will negotiate in honesty. In South Sudan, as an example, peace negotiators were accused of participating with great care they might stay for weeks at a time in luxury hotels.
In Syria, President Bashar al-Assad was often accused of engaging in peace talks as a promotion strategy or to permit his military to regroup before their next attack on civilians.
Good-faith negotiations happen only if it’s within the best interests of the parties to succeed in an agreement.
This violence not only violates old diplomatic customs but also hampers guiding peace talks, including that peace envoys will remain safe.
Russia’s alleged violation of those customs will make it all the tougher for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine to succeed in a successful outcome. The talks will likely be long and arduous and need smaller, confidence-building steps before the war will end