According to a modeling study, the Omicron crisis may deepen as this version of the coronavirus could cause between 25,000 and 75 thousand COVID-19 related deaths in England by April next year if better control measures are not put in place. The study suggests that Omicron crisis has the potential to cause a large wave of infections in England, with more cases than in January 2021 and a significant increase in hospitalizations. It said that by April 2022, 74,800 deaths could occur if additional control measures were not adopted.

(London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) LSHTM uses new data

Researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) in the UK used new experimental data on Omicron’s antibody-evoked characteristics to determine the best-case scenarios for the variant to escape immunodeficiency. Under the most promising scenario, a wave of infections is expected to lead to more than 2,000 daily hospitalizations. If no additional containment measures are implemented, there could be 175,000 hospitalizations and 24,700 deaths between 1 December 2021 and 30 April 2022.

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Many restrictions will have to be imposed

This optimistic scenario explains Omicron’s impact on the low immunity and how this has effect on people with various immunities and the high effectiveness of the vaccine booster. This scenario includes the implementation of containment measures in early 2022 such as the closure of indoor events, some entertainment venues and restrictions on gatherings. If this is done then it will help in controlling the virus wave to a great extent. If this happens, there will be a reduction in the number of hospitalized patients by 53,000 and deaths by 7,600. In the most pessimistic scenario, Omicron’s immune overshoot and vaccine boosters would have low effectiveness.

74,800 deaths due to non-adoption of additional control measures

This scenario indicates a wave of infections, which shows the highest number of hospitalizations likely in January 2021. If no additional control measures are taken, 492,000 people will be hospitalized and 74,800 deaths can occur. LSHTM’s Rosanna Barnard said there is a lot of uncertainty about Omicron characteristics and it is difficult to say whether Omicron will spread in England the same way it did in South Africa.

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